Climate change: Indecision creates an increasingly dismal future

Photo courtesy bloguin.com

Looking into the future is a universal concept. While ancient man stared at the heavens for clues on what the seasons would bring, contemporary corporate man stares at the electronic equivalent of financial ticker tape, trying to discern future financial trends.

No matter what the era, those who picked right usually reaped some reward.

But from a climate scientist's perspective, every scenario looks pretty grim. Climate change is coming. It's just a matter of determining how dramatic it will be. Choosing the level of environmental impact due to rising levels of carbon dioxide, nitrous oxide and other pollutants leading to global warming depends on how quickly society accepts the situation and reacts.

Change is coming

Changing direction is impossible. An analogy made by the California Air Resources Board likened the situation to a person rowing a boat into a dock. Because the boat already is moving forward, it can't come to an immediate stop. Pulling the oars from the water will help. But what's needed is immediate reversal. In other words, dip those oars in and start reversing course. The boat will still drift forward, but it will begin to slow and turn.

What we're doing now, the ARB says, is rowing forward as if there's nothing ahead to ram into.

Boom.

In November 2000, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, which was jointly established by the World Meteorological Organization and the United Nations Environment Programme, released a report on the climate scenarios facing the planet. The highly technical report says everything depends on stemming the increase in emissions and decoding "long-term uncertainties."


Whatever. It looks bad. Emissions, like the rowboat, will continue at a robust pace as global development continues unabated. And that means burning more coal and dirtier oil (tar-sands). Yikes.

Carbon is forever, almost

By the time the oceans begin washing over most coastlines and people the world over begin to develop a sense of alarm, it will be all over. No return. Carbon dioxide, although it only amounts to about 1 percent of the atmosphere, sticks around forever. At least in generational terms.

The solution is obvious but not easy. Stop burning so much crap that creates carbon. But any campaign is surely to run into a gauntlet of obstacles. And by far the worst is the oil industry. Climate change is its Moriarty. A concept to be destroyed at all costs.

Activist and author Bill McKibben puts it this way in an article for Rolling Stone: "To make a real difference ... you'd need to change carbon pricing in Washington, and then use that victory to leverage similar shifts around the world." He says that would influence China and India, "where emissions are growing fastest."

Alternatives are difficult

Incentives and sticks must be used. But nothing works without either a tangible threat or an obvious economic gain. Both, in terms of climate change and alternative energy, remain uncertain. The tornadoes in plains states and increased forest fires in the West could be attributed to seasonal variations, lessening the evidence that climate change is coming.

 

And likewise, the cost of solar and wind power keeps them from becoming real contenders. Sure it's declining, but the sources are variable and fickle and battery backups also increase costs.

So gaze into that crystal ball. What do you see? I see a bunch of policy makers screaming at each other in 20 years, trying to reverse an unstoppable disaster.